FanBoardHQ

Colorado State

Colorado State University · 2023 · Mountain West

FanBoardHQ CFP
#97
Efficiency
-9.2
103rd FBS
Record
5-7
Conf. record
3-5
Conf. finish
T-8th
of 12
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Colorado State went 5-7 and was ranked 97th in the FanBoardHQ CFP Rankings (blended resume and efficiency). Their 90th-ranked defense carried them, with an 113th-ranked offense. They passed the ball on 61% of offensive plays with a 72nd-ranked passing attack and ran the ball on the remaining 39% of plays with a 136th-ranked rushing attack.

Quadrant record

By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.

Q1
0-0
Q2
0-2
Q3
1-3
Q4
4-2

Projected wins

Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Expected: 5.0 wins
Strength of Record
97th
-4.6 wins above a 25th-ranked team's expectation
Strength of Schedule
to date
102nd
full season
102nd
AP poll
Unranked
Conf. sched. difficulty
84th
a 25th-ranked team would win ~6.4 conference games on this schedule

The resume

Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).

WkOpponentConfOpp rankResultExp. marginWin probGameScoreQuad
1vs Washington StatePac-12#64L 2450-14.50%-25.6Q2
3@ ColoradoPac-12#80L 3543-11.00%1.2Q3
4@ Middle TennesseeConference USA#105W 3123-3.3100%3.2Q4
5vs Utah TechUACW 4120+17.7100%-6.0Q4
6@ Utah StateMountain West#94L 2444-2.70%-23.4Q4
7vs Boise StateMountain West#49W 3130-13.3100%3.1Q3
8@ UNLVMountain West#50L 2325-14.40%0.5Q2
9vs Air ForceMountain West#45L 1330-10.30%-18.7Q3
10@ WyomingMountain West#42L 1524-12.00%-5.5Q3
11vs San Diego StateMountain West#108W 2219+3.7100%-11.4Q4
12vs NevadaMountain West#131W 3020+13.9100%-14.0Q4
13@ Hawai'iMountain West#109L 2427+3.60%-14.5Q4

12 played · 5-7. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.

The season

The model’s read on Colorado State, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.

-23.3-11.2+0.9-2613-6-2331-19-6-11-14-15Week 0Week 17
Line = the model's read each week; dots = that week's game (green above the line, red below).

Passing & rushing

Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.

Offense
PassingEff 72nd
SR 78thYPP 72ndEPA 68th
RushingEff 136th
SR 129thYPP 138thEPA 138th
Defense
Pass defenseEff 96th
SR 103rdYPP 78thEPA 99th
Rush defenseEff 83rd
SR 92ndYPP 78thEPA 70th
Dropback rate 61%Tempo +6.3 snaps/game vs. averageFaced pass defenses ranked 85th on average
Success rate by down

Their offense vs. what their defense allows.

1st · Offense: 45%1st · Defense allowed: 46%1st2nd · Offense: 40%2nd · Defense allowed: 39%2nd3rd/4th · Offense: 41%3rd/4th · Defense allowed: 46%3rd/4th
OffenseDefense allowed
Points by quarter

Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.

Q1 · Scored: 68.0Q1 · Allowed: 57.0Q1Q2 · Scored: 66.0Q2 · Allowed: 82.0Q2Q3 · Scored: 34.0Q3 · Allowed: 81.0Q3Q4 · Scored: 115.0Q4 · Allowed: 118.0Q4
ScoredAllowed

What kind of team is this?

Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.

elite bothdefense-ledrebuildingoffense-ledColorado StateOffenseDefense
Colorado State Offense vs Defense, 2023
Offensive EffRanked 113th
-7.2
Field position: -1.0Finishing drives: -6.1
Field position -1.0Finishing drives -6.1= -7.2
Offensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 101st · Finishing 109th

Defensive EffRanked 90th
-2.6
Field position: -0.8Finishing drives: -1.8
Field position -0.8Finishing drives -1.8= -2.6
Defensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 94th · Finishing 81st

1.91 points per drive on offense, 2.29 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 27.

Play-calling & efficiency

What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.

By quarter
Quarter (att.)Pass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(189)58% / 42%39%5.8
Q2(230)57% / 43%42%5.2
Q3(166)65% / 35%36%5.5
Q4(236)69% / 31%50%6.9
how play-calling and results shifted through games — (n) = plays, season total
Passing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(188)10.350%7.2
2nd(170)9.044%6.7
3rd(139)7.737%7.3
4th(13)5.446%10.0
All (510)44%7.1
Rushing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(171)10.239%4.5
2nd(101)6.834%2.9
3rd(34)3.956%3.5
4th(5)1.040%1.0
All (311)39%3.8

Colorado State, all games.